Awhile ago, I read Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making which had collection of useful unconventional observations on decision making under uncertainty. Too bad I don’t have the book now, so I will keep them for reference here. Under normal conditions, when information is available — under streetlights — they are true, but in new circumstances, uncertainty, lack of information — in shadows — they are false. The claim goes further. Real world is messy. It is important that the most useful, crucial, real work is done precisely under such uncertain conditions. And if the world is such that you blindly follow the same procedures, are you doing anything meaningful? If you constantly grow, innovate, create, compete, then 100% of the time you live under uncertainty. Of course, a lot of things are still certain, that’s why our world works, but we should not get too complacent. The book goes great lengths to support the proposition based on historical accounts in engineering and management. Refer to original for details.